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A Basic Lesson In Poker OddsVirtually every beginner poker book worth anything covers poker odds in some level of detail. We'll outline the basics, provide a table, and some examples of how to use the table to determine when you should and should not call a bet.
Before defining the various types of odds, we must first define the term Out. In poker, an Out refers to a card in the deck which, if it comes, will almost certainly give you the winning hand. For example, let's say you have the A2 of hearts, and the flop comes Kh Jd Th. While you only have an A high currently, you have a draw to several strong hands. As there are 13 cards in each suit, and 4 of them are exposed (the two in your hand and the two on the board) you know that there are 9 cards remaining that will give you the Ace high flush. In addition, there are 3 more cards (the Qd, Qc, and Qs) that would give you the Ace high straight. Thus, in this situation, it can be said that you have 12 Outs.
Once you have calculated the number of outs that you have, you can calculate the percent chance that one of those outs will fall. Armed with this knowledge, you can then determine how to value your hand.
In a ring game, you should almost always call according to these calculated odds. The mathematics of this approach to poker should result statistically in a profit over time.
A tournament is vastly different in that you will oftentimes fold a hand where you are a slight favorite, since being wrong one time early has a drastic negative impact on whether or not you make money in the tournament.
There are a couple of different types of odds that are discussed in the many books on poker. Each of the three types of odds are a function of different assumptions players make about the "true" amount of money in the pot.
The most conservative method is the Pot Odds method. When calculating Pot Odds, players look strictly at the amount of money in the pot at the time the bet is made. For example, if 10 people are each in for $1 pre-flop, then the pot is $10 before anyone bets on the flop. If you are in third position, (or third to act), and the person in front of you bets $5, then you are faced with a decision to call $5 to win what is currently a $15 pot. In other words, you are getting 3:1 odds for every $1 you put into the pot.
The next level of odds is what we call Expected Odds. Expected odds is calculated by anticipating how many people that are left to act will also call. In the example above, the player in front of you bet $5 at the $10 pot, and you are deciding whether or not to call with $5 of your own. Sometimes you can be reasonably sure that a player (or players) will also call behind you. Perhaps there is a calling station behind you, or maybe you have picked up a read on a player. Whatever the reason, let's say that you can be pretty sure that two more players behind you will be calling. In this situation, you are actually calling a $5 bet for a shot at $25. (The $15 that already in there, plus the $10 additional for the two callers behind you.) As such, you would now be getting 5:1 odds for every $1 you put in the pot.
The most aggressive way to calculate odds, is the Implied Odds method. Implied odds are calculated by making a guess at how much additional money you might win should you hit one of your outs. For example, let's say that the player who bet $5 at the pot has an additional $75 in his stack. If you think it is reasonable that you will be able to separate that player from the rest of his chips if you hit one of your outs, then you might calculate your implied odds to be $90 ($15 already in the pot plus his additional $75) or $100 (if you add in two additional $5 calls behind you). In this calculation, you are getting 20:1 odds for every $1 you put into the pot.
The decision to call, fold or raise is arrived at by comparing the odds you are getting on your money with the odds of catching one of your outs. If the odds you are getting on your money is greater than the odds against catching an out, then you call. If not you fold.
In order to calculate the odds for betting purposes. Run the following calculation:
1/(chance of hitting).
As an example, assume you have 5 outs on the Flop. You have a 20% percent chance of hitting one of those outs on the turn. The odds of you hitting are 1 in 5. This means that you must be getting at least $5 for every $1 you invest in the pot. At 6:1, you are making a profitable play over time. At 4:1 you are making an unprofitable play over time.
In the same example, if the turn did NOT bring your card, the TURN% now dictates your chance of hitting one of your 5 outs on the river. Using the same calculation 1/11% = 9. This means that you should be getting $9 for every $1 you put into the pot on the turn in order to be breakeven or better in the long-run.
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